🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."